The US inbound travel market is having a difficult 2025 driven by global instability and poor policy making as the country gears up for a number of events that will the world’s attention.
The country is set to welcome The Ryder Cup this month before next year hosting the FIFA 2026 World Cup (alongside Canada and Mexico) when it also celebrates the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
The country will next be the focus of the world in 2028 when it hosts the Olympic and Paralympic Games, all of which should lead to a tourism bonanza.
However, following President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January he has ushered in a new period of global geopolitical turmoil as well as introducing policies seemingly designed to drive tourists away, there are few signs that the US is set to enjoy a tourism boom in the near future.
New data released by the US National Travel and Tourism Office shows that the top 20 overseas international markets grew by 0.3 per cent to 11.56 million visitors in the first six months of 2025.
The UK remains the biggest source market having grown by 2.1 per cent to 1.85 million while India was in second place with 1.1 million visitors following a 1.8 per cent decrease.
Brazil and Japan lie in third and fourth place with growth of 5.7 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively followed by Germany following a 9.1 per cent drop in visitor numbers in the first six months of the year.
Going down
Nor is this the sharpest drop recorded in the US’s top 20 overseas markets, South Korean visitor numbers have fallen by 11.2 per cent while those from Ecuador have fallen by 16.2 per cent.
And in Europe other key markets have also seen some serious drops with France and the Netherlands down by 8 percent and 4.9 per cent respectively.
These steep falls in European visitor numbers are in stark contrast to the optimism shown by the continent’s airlines which had been increasing capacity to the country for summer 2025.
Data released by aviation analysts OAG shows that for summer 2025, the number of airline seats departing Germany for the US grew by 2.2 per cent to 4.31 million while France was up by 3.3 per cent to 3.73 million, just beating Holland’s 2.8 per cent increase to 2.27 million.
The poor first half of the year has led to Tourism Economics predicting that international arrivals to the US will end the year 8.2 per cent down, particularly once the demise of the US’s largest market, Canada, is taken into account.
The tourism analysts said in the first six months of the year the Canadian market, which provided 20.4 million travellers to the US in 2024, was down by 23.7 per cent year on year largely driven by a 28 per cent decrease in land crossings – more than double the 13.3 per cent drop in Canadians flying in.
A Tourism Economics spokesman said: “Cities with heavy reliance on Canadian visitation are bearing the brunt. Seattle is forecast to see a 26.9 per cent drop in international overnight visitors this year, followed by Portland (-18.3 per cent) and Detroit (-17.3 per cent).
“In some destinations, Canadian travel accounts for over 90 per cent of the projected international visitation loss.”
While the immediate picture is depressed, the US Travel Association has also questioned how two recent moves undertaken by the US government will help the industry, which in 2024 generated spends of $1.3 trillion and $190 billion of tax revenues, in the future.
In July, the government passed a bill that will see the cost of the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) for those in the visa waiver programme nearly double from $21 to $40.
At the same time, the US’s destination marketers Brand USA has seen its budget slashed from $100 million a year to just $20 million.
President and CEO of the association Geoff Freeman said: ““Failing to fully fund Brand USA is a missed opportunity—especially as the administration seeks to maximize a historic slate of global events on American soil.
“Raising fees on lawful international visitors amounts to a self-imposed tariff on one of our nation’s largest exports: international travel spending.
“These fees are not reinvested in improving the travel experience and do nothing but discourage visitation at a time when foreign travellers are already concerned about the welcome experience and high prices.”
And the high prices continue to bite too in a country that has long been known for offering good value for those in search of it.
Travel costs
Consumer finance website NerdWallet’s Travel Price Index, which is put together using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Consumer Price Index, shows that US travel costs have fallen by 1 per cent year on year.
However, this decline is an aberration on a trend that has seen prices rise considerably with July 2025 travel costs being 9 per cent greater than in July 2019.
Much of this has been driven by restaurant prices that have risen by 50 per cent from July 2015 to July 2025 while car rental prices have risen by 30.2 per cent in the same period.
Hotel room rates have grown by 12.3 per cent over the last decade and while airfares might seem a bargain having dropped by 16.6 per cent, much of this has been driven by airlines unbundling ticket pricing structures, meaning the final total including bags and seat choice can be much higher than the initial quote.
While the situation might seem gloomy, Freeman has found some reasons to be cheerful as the US government pledged in the July bill to spend $12.5 billion to modernise the National Airspace System (NAS), while a further $4.1 billion has been earmarked to train at least 5,000 new U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers.
A further $673 million will expand the biometric entry-exit system at ports of entry, while new Homeland Security funding includes $625 million for security, planning and operations for the 2026 FIFA World Cup and $1 billion for security and planning tied to the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Which means the events themselves will be well catered for, whether or not people are still interested in coming to the US to witness them remains to be seen.