Travel experts are tearing up previous predictions for the Middle East in 2026 and instead warning of a potential collapse of more than a quarter of last year’s visitor numbers as the Iran War continues unabated.
Following the launch of hostilities against the country by the US and Israeli air forces in February, Iran has responded with a scorched earth policy across the region, targeting civilian infrastructure including airports and hotels in neighbouring countries with missiles and drones.
While the immediate pain is being felt by tourism hotspots including the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Jordan, repercussions are stretching as far as Europe and across most of Asia and the east thanks to the role played by the Middle East in facilitating access for both regions thanks to their three key hub airports.
But with Dubai International Airport, Qatar’s Hamad International Airport and Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi only partially open to facilitate repatriation flights, at the time of writing on Monday 9 March, tourism and aviation experts are downgrading their predictions for the region.
However, with no known time limits on the ongoing bombing of Iran they add it is hard to predict the ultimate impact on the destinations that can no longer boast 100 per cent safety in an otherwise restless region.
Tourism Economics director of global forecasting Helen McDermott and senior economist Jessie Smith argues that the war is more likely to be resolved in two to three weeks as opposed to months thanks to its unpopularity in the US while Iran will have problems sustaining the conflict in the long term.
But even if the war ends quickly, the impact won’t they argue, saying: “We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11 to 27 per cent year on year in 2026 due to the conflict, compared to our December forecast that projected 13 per cent growth.
“In absolute terms, this would mean a range of 23 to 38 million fewer international visitors compared to our baseline/previous forecast, and $34 billion to $56 billion loss in visitor spend. This includes expected lingering sentiment impacts beyond the immediate conflict period.
“Gulf Cooperation Companies (GCC) countries will see the largest losses in volume terms, as they are the largest destinations in the region which have previously relied on perceptions of safety and stability.
“However, a larger impact in percentage terms relative to baseline is evident in non-GCC countries — notably for Israel and Iran, who were previously projected to see some recovery from conflict last year.”
Optimism over
The revised assessment of the Middle East’s tourism fortunes for 2026 are in stark contrast to the optimism felt at the start of the year following a strong 2025.
While UN Tourism’s figures show the region grew by 3 per cent last year, the 39 per cent it left the region ahead of 2019 figures makes it the world’s best performing one since Covid.
Meanwhile, IATA reported that Middle Eastern carriers saw a 6.7 per cent traffic rise in 2025 compared to 2024, with capacity increased 5.8 per cent and load factor climbed to 81.6 per cent.
This optimism had filtered through to the three hubs, with Dubai International less than a month ago celebrating a record 2025 having handled 95.2 million passengers, up 3.1 per cent year on year, and prompting Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths to predict 99.5 million passengers in 2026.
Hamad International Airport saw similar growth or 3 per cent to 54.3 million travellers last year and had planned to use this year to optimise services and system performance with planned works including eastern runway remediation to ensure compliance with ICAO safety standards.
Meanwhile, Zayed International Airport saw strong growth to bring the total number of 2025 passenger numbers to 32.5 million – a new record for the facility.
While all three airports will now be revising their predictions and plans for the year, McDermott and Smith added the immediate impact will be felt far beyond the Middle East as its hub airports account for 14 per cent of all international transit activity with east-west connections from Asia to Europe worst hit.
With all three airports mostly closed, the region’s three largest airlines Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways have been largely grounded in their bases.
However, Strategic Air consultant director Dr Tony Stanton argues that as soon as the situation allows with security stabilised and airspace reopen, the carriers will commence repatriation, cargo and scheduled services within one and three days.
He adds that rebuilding the full hub and spoke networks will take one to two weeks, although passengers might see ongoing issues for up to several weeks once operations resume.
Stanton says: “The first services are usually the routes that help rebuild connectivity through the hub rather than simply short-haul flying.”
He predicts London, Paris and Frankfurt in the west and Singapore in the east will be top of the list while large regional markets including India and Saudi Arabia will also benefit.
“These routes enable airlines to quickly reconnect the largest number of onward itineraries, which is critical for hub-based carriers,” he adds.
Stanton says the airlines will face a “significant” financial impact thanks to a combination of cancellation costs, passenger re-accommodation expenses, disrupted aircraft use and rising fuel prices.
He adds: “That said, the major Gulf carriers entered this year in relatively strong financial shape, so the disruption is more likely to produce a temporary earnings hit rather than a structural financial crisis, unless the conflict become prolonged.”
Crisis of confidence
But Stanton agrees that while the Middle East’s global position will drive returning traffic once it is safe to fully reopen, changing perceptions of the safety of the region will have had a deep impact on future fortunes.
He says: “The longer-term impact is likely to be driven more by confidence and risk perception than by permanent demand loss.
“The Gulf hubs have very strong structural advantages as global connectors, so traffic will likely recover.
“The episode does highlight the geopolitical risk associated with concentrating so much global connectivity in a relatively small region.”
John Grant, partner at aviation analysts OAG, agrees that while it is relatively straightforward to return aircraft to the skies once peace has been agreed, the loss of confidence in the security of destination that have previously been considered safe will be far harder to overcome.
He says: “They have always had this tacit understanding with the Iranians that you don’t touch us and we won’t touch you but now the Iranians have come for them.
“It has changed the landscape for the future and that’s for sure.”