Travel industry experts are watching the Middle East with bated breath as events threaten to spiral out of control following the US bombing of Iran over the weekend.
Concerns had already been growing this month as ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran once again exploded into action with both sides firing missiles at one another, causing both military and civilian casualties.
But with Israel threatening to bomb Iranian facilities developing nuclear weapons with possible help from the US, there were worries before the weekend that this could lead to a major escalation in the Middle East should Iran decide to target US military bases in any of the 12 countries in the region where it has a presence.
Now, despite US President Donald Trump giving the impression that there was a two-week period for negotiations to take place, US B-2 stealth bombers launched an attack on Saturday night on Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
While Iran continues to weigh up its options for retaliatory action there are concerns that any escalation could cause problems far worse than the travel industry is currently coping with, with destinations far beyond the region likely to feel the impact too.
Speaking before the US weekend strike, AGB Associates managing partner and former head of ABTA’s legal services Alan Bowen says: “The travel industry will be taking it very seriously but all bets are off if the US decides to get involved as it is likely to drag other people in and we get into a very complicated situation.
“It’s going to have a huge impact if things develop.”
Aircraft evacuation
OAG partner John Grant said the biggest impact so far from the latest round of fighting in the travel industry has been felt by Israel’s airlines El Al and Arkia as well as low cost carrier Israir, which evacuated their aircraft from the country’s airports on Friday 12 June.
Israeli airspace has also been closed during the latest round of fighting while neighbouring Jordan has enforced an occasional shut down, although opinions vary on the impact this has had on the international aviation market which had rerouted many of its flights via the region thanks to the ongoing closure of Russian airspace.
Grant says the new airspace closures have led to detours being taken by aircraft over Saudi Arabia, adding up to 40 minutes on the flight time which has been adapted into schedules.
He adds: “The latest fighting is obviously a factor of concern and people are conscious of it but from an operational point of view it is clearly safe otherwise airlines would not be using it.
“At the moment the aviation industry is living through turbulent times and dealing with geopolitical issues on an almost daily basis now.”
However, Bowen argues the airspace closure did have an impact as the extra miles flown meant a need for extra refuelling that hadn’t previously been accounted for while Middle Eastern airports experienced some initial delays and cancellations.
He says: “Last weekend was a bit of a nightmare but now they have realised the route is longer so they are carrying a bit more fuel and things are just about back to normal.”
Bowen adds some of the region’s key airports will be watching the current situation with extreme concern, especially since they are not just destination airports but also act as key hubs connecting Europe with Asia and beyond.
He says: “The concern is places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi where people are not just travelling there but transiting through there to get to Australasia and the Far East.
“Obviously they are major connection points and there might be issues if things develop as a lot of these places have British and US airbases in them and they become targets if things get hot.”
Breaking records
Certainly the region’s airports would be unhappy should operations be impacted in any way, especially after the three of the biggest transit hubs in the region have each reported record 2024s.
Dubai International recorded its busiest year to date in 2024, handling 92.3 million travellers from 272 destinations in 107 countries via 106 carriers.
While 55 per cent of the traffic at the Emirates home base and hub were using direct flights, the remaining 45 per cent were in transit, and further growth is currently being predicted with more than 94 million passengers expected this year, 98 million in 2026 and 100 million the year after.
Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Airports, which includes Etihad home base and hub Zayed International Airport, also reported a record year in 2024 with 29.4 million passengers in total, of which just over half were in transit for the first nine months of the year.
The home base of Qatar Airways Hamad International Airport has also boasted of a record 2024 having handled as many as 52.7 million passengers of which more than 12 million were point-to-point travellers, leaving the remaining 75 per cent to transit the facility.
With the airport working with 55 airlines operating to 197 destinations globally, the impact on the global travel industry would be profound should Hamad, or any of the other airports be forced to cease operations, even for a short time.
Grant argues that short of the Israeli-Iranian situation becoming truly disastrous, there will be little impact for consumers this summer, adding: “I don’t think there will be an impact on the transit market, as at this stage of the summer there are very few alternative choices (for routes) available.”
Bowen agrees that while any impact on travel to or through the region will not be felt immediately, there is a danger that the region’s peak winter sun period will be badly hit.
He says: “It hasn’t really had an effect on bookings yet as people have booked their summer holidays months ago. However, what we are seeing is a fall off in bookings if you look six or nine months ahead.
“Winter sun for all these destinations is far more important.”
Even if the latest cycle of violence comes to a quick end, there is a danger that operators will ultimately tire of the region which despite its popularity continues to be a hotbed of instability over the years.
Founding partner and chairman of Sunvil Holidays Noel Josephides says despite the operator’s most popular twin centre break being a Damascus-Beirut tour, he ended it a decade ago due to the ongoing regional instability.
He adds: “We got so fed up of refunding people that I said we would never feature that area again and basically that’s how I look at it.”