Business and convention hotel demand in the US hotel sector has taken on increased importance this year against the backdrop of declining international travel numbers. After years of disruption started by the pandemic and a slower-than-expected return of business travel, the rebound in events, conventions and trade shows has become a leading driver of room nights and hotel occupancy.
And that rebound has come at a time when international leisure travel to the US has plunged over the first year of Donald Trump’s second term, with the number of foreign visitors in 2025 down 4.2 per cent, representing the first annual decline since the pandemic, according to data from the International Trade Administration, compared with worldwide international travel up 4 per cent over the same period.
“The US is the only major destination in the world that is tracking a decline in international visitor spending. It’s a tremendous impact,” said Erik Hansen, a senior vice-president at the US Travel Association, citing a decline of about 11 million international visitors, which amounts to $50 billion in lost spending.
That has inevitably had an impact on overall figures. Hotel operators and analysts had expected a recovery in 2025 that failed to materialise. Instead, the industry saw declines of 1.2 per cent in occupancy and a 0.3 per cent drop in revenue per available room compared with 2024, according to figures from CoStar and Tourism Economics. Projections for this year anticipate more of the same, with HVS, STR and Lodging Analytics and Research forecasting occupancy in the low-60 per cent range and RevPAR around $100, roughly in line with 2025.
And while they collectively believe that the FIFA World Cup should produce a limited boost to some key markets, overall it is not expected to provide more than a brief, one-time uplift.
Upscale more resilient thanks to corporate
However, this downbeat aggregate picture masks a relatively resilient upper‑upscale and luxury segment that includes most major convention hotels, supported by corporate budgets that have not retrenched as sharply as leisure spending among cash-squeezed and job insecure consumers.
Industry bodies such as the US Travel Association have underscored the economic importance of this: business travel and group events contributed $312 billion in total spending in 2024, the most recent full figures, with meetings and conventions alone generating $126 billion. According to CBRE’s Global Hotel Outlook, mid-single-digit increases in group demand and moderate improvements in business travel are expected to lift RevPAR across major markets in the US, although profitability is likely to be tempered by rising costs and progress will be uneven across locations.
For example, New York City, a key destination for finance, media and association events, recorded the highest absolute levels of ADR and RevPAR among major US markets in 2025, with rates rising by nearly 5 per cent even as occupancy dipped marginally.
By contrast, markets with heavy dependence on price‑sensitive leisure and large‑scale event tourism, such as Las Vegas and Houston, saw sharper falls in occupancy and RevPAR.
Las Vegas remains one of the major global convention destinations, but 2025 highlighted its sensitivity to swings in visitor volumes and airline capacity, with double‑digit RevPAR declines as visitor numbers fell, while a Spirit Arline’s bankruptcy curtailed key routes. Stories of exorbitant costs for everything from Starbucks coffee to minibar water bottles also had a negative impact on sentiment.
Value locations emerge
In response, there has been an increased focus on value business destinations among corporate bookers and planners and a number of secondary cities have invested heavily in convention infrastructure. Denver, for example, has expanded its convention centre with the state’s largest ballroom and added a rooftop event space, Indianapolis has expanded its exhibit space linking the downtown convention centre and NFL stadium, with an airport less than 15 minutes away.
San Francisco and San Jose are projected to see some of the strongest RevPAR growth, boosted by a recovery in tech‑related corporate travel, a robust convention schedule at facilities such as the Moscone Center and the draw of major events including the recent Super Bowl plus upcoming World Cup matches.
Planners are also increasingly designing programmes that allow delegates to extend their stays for leisure, showcasing locations such as Miami Beach with its LEED‑certified convention centre near the ocean gaining a greater share of group and incentive business, and Tampa, which saw hotel rates climb by about 16 per cent in 2025, reflecting demand for corporate events and enhanced convention infrastructure. Completing the Florida set, Orlando is also forecast to outperform, benefitting from a new theme park opening last year, supporting both leisure and corporate group traffic.
“While corporate and association group travel remains relatively steady, events in 2026 including the FIFA World Cup and large-scale convention centre renovations may shift demand patterns and create new opportunities for secondary markets,” adds David Smith
Cushman & Wakefield’s Head of Americas Insights, Global Research.
Stability required
PwC’s Hospitality Directions outlook points to slow, stable growth, with supply expected to expand faster than demand as development activity normalises and new projects that were conceived during the recovery phase open across chains. For convention‑oriented hotels, this implies a need to compete harder on value and experience, as meeting planners are presented with more choice.
For corporate travel, group bookings, and international inbound, PwC’s anticipates short-term RevPAR growth headwinds in the first two quarters of 2026, followed by moderate acceleration in the second half as large-scale events and a more stable macro environment begin to lift both business and inbound international travel.
“Looking ahead, easier comps, particularly in the latter half of 2026, are expected to provide a more favourable backdrop for RevPAR growth,” stresses Abhi Jain, Principal, Hospitality and Real Estate, PwC US.
HVS Americas President Rod Clough also points out that the government has a significant role to play in helping corporate travel across the US in 2026, both by helping to facilitate international business visitors by removing obstacles to entry and by stabilising its own employment situation.
“A functioning and funded federal sector for this year, as well as more government travel and less employment loss, would help our industry find a more positive trajectory. More robust hiring and corporate investment will be key, too, ideally sparked by declining interest rates,” Clough reflects.
“There’s never a dull moment when it comes to US hotel investments, to be sure, but we are hopeful that 2026 will bring a more positive trend overall.”